You should probably stay at your big company job because the people who are currently startup founders are self-selected for, on average, different things than you’re selecting yourself for by trying to jump on a popular trend, and so their success is only a weak predictor of your success.
Startups often cash out by generating hype and getting bought for ridiculous amounts of money by a big company. But they are very, very often, in more sober analysis, not worth this money. From a societal perspective this is bad because it’s not properly aligning incentives with wealth creation, and from a new-entrant perspective this is bad because you likely fail if the bubble pops before you can sell.
Argument thread!
You should probably stay at your big company job because the people who are currently startup founders are self-selected for, on average, different things than you’re selecting yourself for by trying to jump on a popular trend, and so their success is only a weak predictor of your success.
Startups often cash out by generating hype and getting bought for ridiculous amounts of money by a big company. But they are very, very often, in more sober analysis, not worth this money. From a societal perspective this is bad because it’s not properly aligning incentives with wealth creation, and from a new-entrant perspective this is bad because you likely fail if the bubble pops before you can sell.