faul_sname comments on [Link] Social interventions gone wrong

[faul_sname]

Here are my results. P(yes) is the probability I gave that a given intervention worked before I saw the answers.

Question | P(yes) | Answer
1        |  0.2   | NO
2        |  0.7   | YES
3        |  0.2   | NO
4        |  0.4   | NO
5        |  0.5   | NO
6        |  0.4   | NO
7        |  0.3   | YES
8        |  0.4   | NO

My average probability rating was 0.39. My average probability rating for correct answers was 0.5, and my average probability rating for incorrect answers was 0.35.

If I do better than chance at this, it’s not by much.