Morendil’s explanation is, as far as I can tell, correct. What’s much more interesting is that examples given in terms of frequencies is required to engage our normal intuitions about probability. There’s at least some research that indicates that when questions of estimation and probability are given in terms of frequencies (ie: asking ‘how many problems do you think you got correct?’ instead of ‘what is your confidence for this answer?’), many biases disappear completely.
Morendil’s explanation is, as far as I can tell, correct. What’s much more interesting is that examples given in terms of frequencies is required to engage our normal intuitions about probability. There’s at least some research that indicates that when questions of estimation and probability are given in terms of frequencies (ie: asking ‘how many problems do you think you got correct?’ instead of ‘what is your confidence for this answer?’), many biases disappear completely.