This feels pretty harsh, for someone who’s already disengaged and where you don’t know their circumstances. If I see them around I’ll ask if they can afford to pay at least part or set up some kind of plan, but at 2000:1 odds playing hardball would feel like hurting someone rather than collecting on a friendly bet. (see e.g. my ask for a smaller size, above)
I think this does give me a principled basis to ask for some kind of escrow in any similar situations in future though; e.g. counterparty donates at time of bet, and I pay back CPI-adjusted donation plus my loss if I lose. (and I think I’m credible for that, e.g.).
Hm, I have no stake in this bet, but care a lot about having a high trust forum where people can expect others to follow through on lost bets, even with internet strangers. I’m happy enforcing this as a norm, even with hostile-seeming actions, because these kinds of norm transgressions need a Schelling fence.
As far as I can tell from their online personal details (which aren’t too hard to find), they have a day-job at a company that has (by my standards) very high salaries, so my best guess is that the $2k are not a problem. But I can contact MadHatter by email & check.
After thinking about it for a few minutes, I’d expect that MadHatter has disengaged from this community/cause anyway, so that kind of public reveal is not going to hurt them much, whereas it might have a big symbolic/common-knowledge-establishing value.
I think having my real name publicly & searchably associated with scummy behavior would discourage me from doing something, both in terms of future employers & random friends googling, as well as LLMs being trained on the internet.
This feels pretty harsh, for someone who’s already disengaged and where you don’t know their circumstances. If I see them around I’ll ask if they can afford to pay at least part or set up some kind of plan, but at 2000:1 odds playing hardball would feel like hurting someone rather than collecting on a friendly bet. (see e.g. my ask for a smaller size, above)
I think this does give me a principled basis to ask for some kind of escrow in any similar situations in future though; e.g. counterparty donates at time of bet, and I pay back CPI-adjusted donation plus my loss if I lose. (and I think I’m credible for that, e.g.).
Hm, I have no stake in this bet, but care a lot about having a high trust forum where people can expect others to follow through on lost bets, even with internet strangers. I’m happy enforcing this as a norm, even with hostile-seeming actions, because these kinds of norm transgressions need a Schelling fence.
As far as I can tell from their online personal details (which aren’t too hard to find), they have a day-job at a company that has (by my standards) very high salaries, so my best guess is that the $2k are not a problem. But I can contact MadHatter by email & check.
After thinking about it for a few minutes, I’d expect that MadHatter has disengaged from this community/cause anyway, so that kind of public reveal is not going to hurt them much, whereas it might have a big symbolic/common-knowledge-establishing value.
I think having my real name publicly & searchably associated with scummy behavior would discourage me from doing something, both in terms of future employers & random friends googling, as well as LLMs being trained on the internet.