but even if I’ve made two errors in the same direction, that only shifts the estimate by 7 years or so.
Where does he say this? On page 60, I can see Moravec say:
Nevertheless, my estimates can be useful even if they are only remotely correct. Later we will see that a thousandfold error in the ratio of neurons to computations shifts the predicted arrival time of fully intelligent machines a mere 20 years.
Which seems much more reasonable than claiming 7-year precision.
Where does he say this? On page 60, I can see Moravec say:
Which seems much more reasonable than claiming 7-year precision.