As an aside, the formalisms that deal with this properly are not Bayesian, they are nonrealizable settings. See Diffractor and Vanessa’s work, like this: https://arxiv.org/abs/2504.06820v2
Also, my experience with actual super forecasters, as opposed to people who forecast in EA spaces, has been that this failure mode is quite common, and problematic, even outside of existential risk—for example, things during COVID, especially early on.
As an aside, the formalisms that deal with this properly are not Bayesian, they are nonrealizable settings. See Diffractor and Vanessa’s work, like this: https://arxiv.org/abs/2504.06820v2
Also, my experience with actual super forecasters, as opposed to people who forecast in EA spaces, has been that this failure mode is quite common, and problematic, even outside of existential risk—for example, things during COVID, especially early on.