It depends on properties of bounded search itself.
I.e., if you are properly calibrated domain expert who can make 200 statements on topic with assigned probability 0.5% and be wrong on average 1 time, then, when you arrive at probability 0.5% as a result of your search for examples, we can expect that your search space was adequate and wasn’t oversimplified, such that your result is not meaningless.
If you operate in confusing, novel, adversarial domain, especially when domain is “the future”, when you find yourself assigning probabilities 0.5% for any reason which is not literally theorems and physical laws, your default move should be to say “wait, this probability is ridiculous”.
It depends on properties of bounded search itself.
I.e., if you are properly calibrated domain expert who can make 200 statements on topic with assigned probability 0.5% and be wrong on average 1 time, then, when you arrive at probability 0.5% as a result of your search for examples, we can expect that your search space was adequate and wasn’t oversimplified, such that your result is not meaningless.
If you operate in confusing, novel, adversarial domain, especially when domain is “the future”, when you find yourself assigning probabilities 0.5% for any reason which is not literally theorems and physical laws, your default move should be to say “wait, this probability is ridiculous”.