When reading about forecasting, one of the pieces of common advice is “break a prediction into cases and evaluate them separately.” I found this advice unhelpful for the reasons you described. I could free associate some cases but would miss some, and I trusted my gut more than this decomposition. Maybe this is a case where “do the math then go with your gut” makes sense.
Is there a better way to do the decomposition for predictions?
When reading about forecasting, one of the pieces of common advice is “break a prediction into cases and evaluate them separately.” I found this advice unhelpful for the reasons you described. I could free associate some cases but would miss some, and I trusted my gut more than this decomposition. Maybe this is a case where “do the math then go with your gut” makes sense.
Is there a better way to do the decomposition for predictions?