Is it right to compress this concept as a kind of “scope insensitivity”? It seems like you could describe this mistake as when you start enumerating possibilities but forget to multiply by likelihood and check they add somewhere near to 1. Or, relatedly, forget to list an “Other” option for everything you haven’t thought about and assign that a probability. If this doesn’t fully capture the idea I probably have missed something.
Is it right to compress this concept as a kind of “scope insensitivity”? It seems like you could describe this mistake as when you start enumerating possibilities but forget to multiply by likelihood and check they add somewhere near to 1. Or, relatedly, forget to list an “Other” option for everything you haven’t thought about and assign that a probability. If this doesn’t fully capture the idea I probably have missed something.