The main restriction would be to pick “important” predictions, whatever “important” means here.
I don’t know if there is any useful algorithm here. The space of possibilities is vast, black swans lurk at the outskirts, and Murphy is alive and well :-/
You can try doing something like this:
List the important (to you) events or outcomes in some near future
List everything that could potentially affect these events or outcomes.
and you get your universe of “events of interest” to assign probabilities to.
I doubt this will be a useful exercise in practice, though.
I don’t know if there is any useful algorithm here. The space of possibilities is vast, black swans lurk at the outskirts, and Murphy is alive and well :-/
You can try doing something like this:
List the important (to you) events or outcomes in some near future
List everything that could potentially affect these events or outcomes.
and you get your universe of “events of interest” to assign probabilities to.
I doubt this will be a useful exercise in practice, though.
Yes, upon reflection, it seems that something along these lines is probably the best I can do, and you’re right that it probably will not be useful.
I’ll give it a try and evaluate whether I’d want to try again.