Sailing across the ocean every month for 60 years:
(1-(1/10000))^(60*12)=0.931
The sailing risk is probably overestimated. I have never met anyone who was lost at sea, never seen pictures of someone lost at sea, never heard back from the people who I thought might be lost at sea, and I’m sure to find shore soon and I think I have enough peanut butter for another week...
Since nobody seems to have posted it yet:
Riding a motorcycle for 60 years:
(1-1/800)^60=0.928
Sailing across the ocean every month for 60 years:
(1-(1/10000))^(60*12)=0.931
The sailing risk is probably overestimated. I have never met anyone who was lost at sea, never seen pictures of someone lost at sea, never heard back from the people who I thought might be lost at sea, and I’m sure to find shore soon and I think I have enough peanut butter for another week...