It’s a calibration
test, which is
(more or less) a test of how well you judge the accuracy of your guesses. How
accurate your guess itself was is not important here except when judged in the
light of the confidence level you assigned to the 15-years-either-way
confidence interval.
Except for people who happened to have the year of [redacted event]
memorized, everyone’s answer to the first of these two questions was a
guess. Some people’s guesses were more
educated than others, but the
important part is not the accuracy of the guess, but how well the accuracy of
the guess tracks the confidence level.
It’s a calibration test, which is (more or less) a test of how well you judge the accuracy of your guesses. How accurate your guess itself was is not important here except when judged in the light of the confidence level you assigned to the 15-years-either-way confidence interval.
Except for people who happened to have the year of [redacted event] memorized, everyone’s answer to the first of these two questions was a guess. Some people’s guesses were more educated than others, but the important part is not the accuracy of the guess, but how well the accuracy of the guess tracks the confidence level.