There’s no good way to do this using only the error of a point estimate, it depends on the shape of the distribution you assign. For example, imagine someone who can’t remember whether some event happened in 1692 or 1892, so randomly guesses 1692 with 50% confidence. If the correct answer was 1892, this person was off by 200 years, but still very well calibrated.
There’s no good way to do this using only the error of a point estimate, it depends on the shape of the distribution you assign. For example, imagine someone who can’t remember whether some event happened in 1692 or 1892, so randomly guesses 1692 with 50% confidence. If the correct answer was 1892, this person was off by 200 years, but still very well calibrated.