If we’re part of a simulation, how likely is it that whatever it’s running on is using the same sort of atoms we’ve discovered?
Even if we right now had the ability to run really good simulations we will probably run a larger variety of simulations with different types of physics with different building blocks than the building blocks of our reality (a crude example—Conway’s game of life does not simulate atoms) so I’d reason that its more likely that the real physics of the real world are not very similar to our physics. And even if they are similar, our physics are more probably just an approximation of the real thing.
This is also the reason why I don’t think we are very likely to be in an ancestral simulation—the intelligence(s) in the real universe that has/have the capability of running such an elaborate simulation of our world are likely to have ran an enormously large numbers of simulations of universes not like its/their own and the number of those simulations is probably way way way higher then the number of ancestral-type simulations that it/they will have run.
If anything the likeliest type of simulations to be data-mined (as in to be ran in the largest number of the possible varieties) which are in accord with whats going on in our world would be simulations of universe with intelligent life that leads to a singularity. In fact even ancestor simulations suggest that we are in a simulation that reaches a singularity (how else are they running a large number of such complex simulations). My reasoning for this is that data-mining of such simulations is likely done by a sort of superintelligence and it is reasonable to argue that a superintelligence will be searching for/find useful data from a post-singularity world and not so much data of what some stupid apes do.
So onwards to practical questions. Is there any conceivable way of telling whether we’re in a simulation and if so, learning something about its nature? Is it worth trying to get out of the Big Box?
Every test can be faked by the lords of the matrix in a way that always gives the results that we will get in the ‘real’ universe, so there might not be a way to tell if we live in a simulation. However the more it seems that we will be able to run complex simulations with life that experiences qualia the more likely it is that there are a large number of such simulations per real universe which makes it more likely that we live in a simulation. If the evidence gets good enough we might one day know that the chances are only 10^100 to 1 for us to be in the real world (a made up number just to illustrate my point).
This is also the reason why I don’t think we are very likely to be in an ancestral simulation
I use stronger language. The chance that we are in an ancestor simulation is in the neighborhood of epsilon.
All the arguments which imply that we might be living in a simulation would imply that the universe which is simulating us is also a simulation. I assume there’s got to be a ground universe somewhere in the chain.
An extreme Singularity doesn’t seem necessary to get a lot of simulations.
Whether we can be sure we’ve gotten out may be a different problem than whether we can get out.
I assume there’s got to be a ground universe somewhere in the chain.
I’m not saying you’re wrong to think this is likely, but I don’t think this is as necessary a condition as some people are taking it to be. So long as each simulation is simulated from somewhere, there’s no reason why it can’t be the case that every simulator is also simulated. I can think of no reason why the universe would be like this, but I can also think of no reason why it can’t be that way.
The chance that we are in an ancestor simulation is in the neighborhood of epsilon.
I also put the chance for an ancestor simulation in that neighborhood, I just don’t give a high probability that my best guesses on the topic are actually sound and that skews things a little. ( as in ‘There might be reasons why a simulation-capable society would run more ancestral simulations than other kinds of simulations even if I haven’t thought of those reasons yet’)
All the arguments which imply that we might be living in a simulation would imply that the universe which is simulating us is also a simulation. I assume there’s got to be a ground universe somewhere in the chain.
Yup, there must be a base universe but it is possible that the inhabitants of the base universe have also done their math and also reason that the chances are higher for them to be in a simulation (even though they are actually the only ones(not actually sure about the ‘only’ bit) that are not in a simulation).
An extreme Singularity doesn’t seem necessary to get a lot of simulations.
Not an extreme one, no. Still, you need to have passed a certain level to be able to run those simulations and you can progress your civilization a lot more just from information that you gather from such simulations which in turn would logically lead to an ‘extreme’ singularity. (exponential growth and all).
Even if we right now had the ability to run really good simulations we will probably run a larger variety of simulations with different types of physics with different building blocks than the building blocks of our reality (a crude example—Conway’s game of life does not simulate atoms) so I’d reason that its more likely that the real physics of the real world are not very similar to our physics. And even if they are similar, our physics are more probably just an approximation of the real thing.
This is also the reason why I don’t think we are very likely to be in an ancestral simulation—the intelligence(s) in the real universe that has/have the capability of running such an elaborate simulation of our world are likely to have ran an enormously large numbers of simulations of universes not like its/their own and the number of those simulations is probably way way way higher then the number of ancestral-type simulations that it/they will have run.
If anything the likeliest type of simulations to be data-mined (as in to be ran in the largest number of the possible varieties) which are in accord with whats going on in our world would be simulations of universe with intelligent life that leads to a singularity. In fact even ancestor simulations suggest that we are in a simulation that reaches a singularity (how else are they running a large number of such complex simulations). My reasoning for this is that data-mining of such simulations is likely done by a sort of superintelligence and it is reasonable to argue that a superintelligence will be searching for/find useful data from a post-singularity world and not so much data of what some stupid apes do.
Every test can be faked by the lords of the matrix in a way that always gives the results that we will get in the ‘real’ universe, so there might not be a way to tell if we live in a simulation. However the more it seems that we will be able to run complex simulations with life that experiences qualia the more likely it is that there are a large number of such simulations per real universe which makes it more likely that we live in a simulation. If the evidence gets good enough we might one day know that the chances are only 10^100 to 1 for us to be in the real world (a made up number just to illustrate my point).
I use stronger language. The chance that we are in an ancestor simulation is in the neighborhood of epsilon.
All the arguments which imply that we might be living in a simulation would imply that the universe which is simulating us is also a simulation. I assume there’s got to be a ground universe somewhere in the chain.
An extreme Singularity doesn’t seem necessary to get a lot of simulations.
Whether we can be sure we’ve gotten out may be a different problem than whether we can get out.
I’m not saying you’re wrong to think this is likely, but I don’t think this is as necessary a condition as some people are taking it to be. So long as each simulation is simulated from somewhere, there’s no reason why it can’t be the case that every simulator is also simulated. I can think of no reason why the universe would be like this, but I can also think of no reason why it can’t be that way.
I also put the chance for an ancestor simulation in that neighborhood, I just don’t give a high probability that my best guesses on the topic are actually sound and that skews things a little. ( as in ‘There might be reasons why a simulation-capable society would run more ancestral simulations than other kinds of simulations even if I haven’t thought of those reasons yet’)
Yup, there must be a base universe but it is possible that the inhabitants of the base universe have also done their math and also reason that the chances are higher for them to be in a simulation (even though they are actually the only ones(not actually sure about the ‘only’ bit) that are not in a simulation).
Not an extreme one, no. Still, you need to have passed a certain level to be able to run those simulations and you can progress your civilization a lot more just from information that you gather from such simulations which in turn would logically lead to an ‘extreme’ singularity. (exponential growth and all).