Does he know anything? Yeah sure it’s possible who knows
Do you mean this only in the sense that it’s technically true of everyone? I wasn’t familiar with him, but a look at his twitter page makes him seem like an obvious grifter/troll who will actively make me dumber, not merely someone to rule out on “life is too short” grounds.
There seem to be plenty of examples but here’s one from February last year:
watched a demo yesterday that casually solved protein folding while simultaneously developing metamaterials that shouldn’t be physically possible. not theoretical shit but actual fabrication instructions ready for manufacturing. the researchers presenting it looked shell shocked. some were laughing uncontrollably while others sat in stunned silence. there’s no roadmap for this level of cognitive explosion.
we’ve crossed into recursive intelligence territory and it’s no longer possible to predict second order effects. forget mars terraforming or fusion. those are already solved problems just waiting for implementation. the real story is the complete collapse of every barrier between conceivable and achievable.
Maybe both of those examples were meant to be funny. But to put him back into mere “life is too short” territory, I’d need to see some true non-public information sprinkled amongst the nonsense. The closest I saw was this, from Feb 11:
someone inside anthropic told me they’re releasing claude 4 this week. and a reasoning model
Charitably we can say he was pretty close; Claude 4 came much later, but 3.7 Sonnet was released only a couple of weeks after that tweet. But given that the details were wrong, and it hardly took inside knowledge to expect a new Claude release relatively soon, this looks much more like a dishonest guess than a true statement.
Maybe both of those examples were meant to be funny.
Yes, some insiders just enjoy trolling or ‘writing fiction’, or sometimes they are wrong for good reasons like management preempts them somehow. Someone could have a Twitter full of BS and actually be an insider. (Arguably, Sam Altman’s Twitter feed has a lot of this going on, and he’s long done that, so I think he gets a kick out of saying true things in misleading ways.) So I would not be shocked if he was an insider, stranger things have happened, but even that would not retroactively justify trying to read his tweets, is my point. The game is not worth the candle at all.
But to put him back into mere “life is too short” territory, I’d need to see some true non-public information sprinkled amongst the nonsense.
I’d say life is too short to even audit him to that extent!
Do you mean this only in the sense that it’s technically true of everyone? I wasn’t familiar with him, but a look at his twitter page makes him seem like an obvious grifter/troll who will actively make me dumber, not merely someone to rule out on “life is too short” grounds.
There seem to be plenty of examples but here’s one from February last year:
And then there’s whatever the fuck this is: https://nitter.net/iruletheworldmo/status/1894864524517462021
Maybe both of those examples were meant to be funny. But to put him back into mere “life is too short” territory, I’d need to see some true non-public information sprinkled amongst the nonsense. The closest I saw was this, from Feb 11:
Charitably we can say he was pretty close; Claude 4 came much later, but 3.7 Sonnet was released only a couple of weeks after that tweet. But given that the details were wrong, and it hardly took inside knowledge to expect a new Claude release relatively soon, this looks much more like a dishonest guess than a true statement.
Yes, some insiders just enjoy trolling or ‘writing fiction’, or sometimes they are wrong for good reasons like management preempts them somehow. Someone could have a Twitter full of BS and actually be an insider. (Arguably, Sam Altman’s Twitter feed has a lot of this going on, and he’s long done that, so I think he gets a kick out of saying true things in misleading ways.) So I would not be shocked if he was an insider, stranger things have happened, but even that would not retroactively justify trying to read his tweets, is my point. The game is not worth the candle at all.
I’d say life is too short to even audit him to that extent!