I think I was just conflating different kinds of decisions here, and imagining arguing with people with very different conceptions of what are important to count in costs and benefits, and a bit confused. On reflection I don’t endorse 10x margin in terms of like percentage points of x-risk. And like maybe margin is sort of a crutch, maybe the thing I want more is like “95% chance of being net-positive, considering possibility you’re kind of biased”. I still think you should be suspicious of “the case exactly balance lets ship’
I think I was just conflating different kinds of decisions here, and imagining arguing with people with very different conceptions of what are important to count in costs and benefits, and a bit confused. On reflection I don’t endorse 10x margin in terms of like percentage points of x-risk. And like maybe margin is sort of a crutch, maybe the thing I want more is like “95% chance of being net-positive, considering possibility you’re kind of biased”. I still think you should be suspicious of “the case exactly balance lets ship’