“She knew from the start that she is twice as likely to be asked when it is tails. ”
The probability that she would be asked is 1, regardless of the outcome of the coin. Her estimate of the chances of her being awakened should have been 1.
Yes: her estimate of the chances of her being awakened is indeed 1.
“She knew from the start that she is twice as likely to be asked when it is tails. ”
The probability that she would be asked is 1, regardless of the outcome of the coin. Her estimate of the chances of her being awakened should have been 1.
Yes: her estimate of the chances of her being awakened is indeed 1.