The G7 (where we expect to see automation first), is only about 30% of the GWP. So for 100 extra basis points of global product from AI, if concentrated in those countries, looks like 333 basis points of growth in those countries. Remember Amhdahls law of slowdowns. If we expect the growth to only be in one breakout country, for that country it looks like 400 or 500 basis point in the 1% extra scenario, and the expected 1000 or more basis points in the pessismistic 2.5 percent delta. With the existing 200 basis points of baseline growth.
The poorest countries don’t have much acess to capital, which means that changes in means in production (which always takes switching costs and thus capital), are really hard.
I think there is a transition dynamic about whether appllications/productivity is measured in the fastest growing or global economies.
It really takes a long time for new means of productions to find there ways to the darker corners of the global economy. If that does not happen, we expect to see lower growth (since growth is limited by the tightest constraint and even big companies have some small/globally disadvantage suppliers)
The G7 (where we expect to see automation first), is only about 30% of the GWP. So for 100 extra basis points of global product from AI, if concentrated in those countries, looks like 333 basis points of growth in those countries. Remember Amhdahls law of slowdowns. If we expect the growth to only be in one breakout country, for that country it looks like 400 or 500 basis point in the 1% extra scenario, and the expected 1000 or more basis points in the pessismistic 2.5 percent delta. With the existing 200 basis points of baseline growth.
The poorest countries don’t have much acess to capital, which means that changes in means in production (which always takes switching costs and thus capital), are really hard.
I think there is a transition dynamic about whether appllications/productivity is measured in the fastest growing or global economies.
It really takes a long time for new means of productions to find there ways to the darker corners of the global economy. If that does not happen, we expect to see lower growth (since growth is limited by the tightest constraint and even big companies have some small/globally disadvantage suppliers)
Note the switches between GDP and GWP.