So the citation is an unreleased paper! That unreleased paper may make a splash, since (assuming this 7-month-doubling trend is not merely 1-2 years old) it strongly implies we really will find good solutions for turning LLMs agentic fairly soon.
The 7-month doubling trend we measured actually goes back to GPT-2 in 2019. Since 2024, the trend has been faster, doubling roughly every 3-4 months depending on how you measure, but we only have six 2024-25 models so error bars are wide and it’s really unclear which trend will be predictive of the future.
The 7-month doubling trend we measured actually goes back to GPT-2 in 2019. Since 2024, the trend has been faster, doubling roughly every 3-4 months depending on how you measure, but we only have six 2024-25 models so error bars are wide and it’s really unclear which trend will be predictive of the future.