I spent a bit of time looking at Geert Vanden Bossche’s ideas about six months ago. I came away extremely unimpressed; he takes reasonable sounding things (“viruses mutate under selective pressure”) and tries to extrapolate from them things that we don’t actually see in reality. He describes a plausible sounding reality, that is not our reality.
I agree he paints a bad picture but he’s short on actual, time-bounded, predictions to evaluate his claims.
He shared some predictions in May, with a time frame of months/weeks to see some vaccine resistant variant.
I think Omicron counts as variant that is vaccine resistant, even though there’s no peak in vaccinated deaths rates (deaths may be, but not rates as far as I can tell).
Some other people claim Omicron does not descend from the Wuhan strain, so even this might not be the variant Geert Vanden Bossche predicted.
Were you referring to some other prediction in particular?
I spent a bit of time looking at Geert Vanden Bossche’s ideas about six months ago. I came away extremely unimpressed; he takes reasonable sounding things (“viruses mutate under selective pressure”) and tries to extrapolate from them things that we don’t actually see in reality. He describes a plausible sounding reality, that is not our reality.
I agree he paints a bad picture but he’s short on actual, time-bounded, predictions to evaluate his claims.
He shared some predictions in May, with a time frame of months/weeks to see some vaccine resistant variant.
I think Omicron counts as variant that is vaccine resistant, even though there’s no peak in vaccinated deaths rates (deaths may be, but not rates as far as I can tell).
Some other people claim Omicron does not descend from the Wuhan strain, so even this might not be the variant Geert Vanden Bossche predicted.
Were you referring to some other prediction in particular?