Qiaochu_Yuan already made much of the point that I wanted to make. I’d like to add to it that there are a lot of non-gambling examples of things that work like decision-making under uncertainty and probability.
IIRC, Eliezer used an example about an economic pundit trying to allocate preparation time to explaining why the market went up or why it went down. Even if you can’t get them to take a bet, they have only so much time, and must divide it between the two cases.
Anyhow, my point is that when you map “willing to spend $X on lottery Y” to “willing to spend X time preparing for eventuality Y”, getting dutch-booked looks a lot sillier. You’d be trying to spend more time than you had for all eventualities, for example.
Qiaochu_Yuan already made much of the point that I wanted to make. I’d like to add to it that there are a lot of non-gambling examples of things that work like decision-making under uncertainty and probability.
IIRC, Eliezer used an example about an economic pundit trying to allocate preparation time to explaining why the market went up or why it went down. Even if you can’t get them to take a bet, they have only so much time, and must divide it between the two cases.
Anyhow, my point is that when you map “willing to spend $X on lottery Y” to “willing to spend X time preparing for eventuality Y”, getting dutch-booked looks a lot sillier. You’d be trying to spend more time than you had for all eventualities, for example.