You get answers to those only by running many simulations and mapping out branches of the metaverse. The die roll turns out differently in each and in some this leads to different consequence
While this is a good way to get such data, it isn’t the only way . If we expand enough to look at a large number of planets in the galaxy we should arrive at decent estimates simply based on empirical data.
Certainly expanding our observational bubble and looking at other stars will give us valuable information. Simulation is a way of expanding on that.
However, its questionable when or if we ever will make it out to the stars.
Lightyears are vast for humans, but they will be even vaster units of time for posthuman civilizations that think thousands or millions of times faster than us.
It could be that the vast cost of travelling out into space is never worthwhile and those resources are always best used towards developing more local intelligence. John Smart makes a pretty good case for inward expansion always trumping outward expansion.
While this is a good way to get such data, it isn’t the only way . If we expand enough to look at a large number of planets in the galaxy we should arrive at decent estimates simply based on empirical data.
Certainly expanding our observational bubble and looking at other stars will give us valuable information. Simulation is a way of expanding on that.
However, its questionable when or if we ever will make it out to the stars.
Lightyears are vast for humans, but they will be even vaster units of time for posthuman civilizations that think thousands or millions of times faster than us.
It could be that the vast cost of travelling out into space is never worthwhile and those resources are always best used towards developing more local intelligence. John Smart makes a pretty good case for inward expansion always trumping outward expansion.