Slight disagree on definition of unipolarity: Unipolarity can be stable if we are stuck with a sucky scaling law. Suppose task horizon length becomes exponential in compute. Then, economically speaking, only one actor will be able to create the best possible agent—others actors will run out of money before they can create enough compute to rival it.
If the compute required to clear the capability threshold for takeover is somewhere between that agent and say, the second largest datacenter, then we have a unipolar world for an extended period of time.
Slight disagree on definition of unipolarity: Unipolarity can be stable if we are stuck with a sucky scaling law. Suppose task horizon length becomes exponential in compute. Then, economically speaking, only one actor will be able to create the best possible agent—others actors will run out of money before they can create enough compute to rival it.
If the compute required to clear the capability threshold for takeover is somewhere between that agent and say, the second largest datacenter, then we have a unipolar world for an extended period of time.