I think this is almost but not quite exactly right. it is indeed true that many people’s ambition is just to climb their local status ladder to a comfortable middle level.
however many of the most successful founders were previously middle-to-high status in some existing company’s status ladder. being a middle manager in a big company is strong bayesian evidence that they will be a successful founder. there are way more low status people than high status people inside existing ladders, and there very very few extremely successful founders, so you don’t need that many high status extremely successful founders before high status is bayesian evidence for extreme success.
I also think there’s some adverse selection / lemon market effect where people who choose to opt out of the existing ladder often do so because they would be unable to win on the existing ladder even if they tried their hardest. in this case, trying to meme your way into countersignalling might be a good strategy. unfortunately, it means that other people have to be very skeptical of countersignallers who haven’t demonstrated that they really are in the winner’s bracket. I’d guess most examples of people who succeeded after opting out of one status ladder have done something that is legibly high status in some other existing recognized status ladder.
I think this is almost but not quite exactly right. it is indeed true that many people’s ambition is just to climb their local status ladder to a comfortable middle level.
however many of the most successful founders were previously middle-to-high status in some existing company’s status ladder. being a middle manager in a big company is strong bayesian evidence that they will be a successful founder. there are way more low status people than high status people inside existing ladders, and there very very few extremely successful founders, so you don’t need that many high status extremely successful founders before high status is bayesian evidence for extreme success.
I also think there’s some adverse selection / lemon market effect where people who choose to opt out of the existing ladder often do so because they would be unable to win on the existing ladder even if they tried their hardest. in this case, trying to meme your way into countersignalling might be a good strategy. unfortunately, it means that other people have to be very skeptical of countersignallers who haven’t demonstrated that they really are in the winner’s bracket. I’d guess most examples of people who succeeded after opting out of one status ladder have done something that is legibly high status in some other existing recognized status ladder.