Sorry, I don’t get this. How could we make the argument that the probability is below 50%?
I think my analysis there was not particularly good, and only starts to make sense if we aren’t yet in equilibrium.
Depending on the answer, I expect I’d follow up with either [...] 3. Why is it okay for us to assume that we’re in an honest-enough regime?
I think #3 is the most reasonable, with the answer being “I have no reason why that’s a reasonable assumption; I’m just saying, that’s what you’d usually try to argue in a debate context...”
(As I stated in the OP, I have no claims as to how to induce honest equilibrium in my setup.)
I think my analysis there was not particularly good, and only starts to make sense if we aren’t yet in equilibrium.
I think #3 is the most reasonable, with the answer being “I have no reason why that’s a reasonable assumption; I’m just saying, that’s what you’d usually try to argue in a debate context...”
(As I stated in the OP, I have no claims as to how to induce honest equilibrium in my setup.)