FWIW, my view is that the badness is somewhat evenly split between increases to takeover risk and the far future being worse conditional on no misaligned AI takeover. (Maybe 2⁄5 increases to misaligned AI takeover risk and 3⁄5 far future being worse? It depend on what you mean though because China winning is also correlated with US/China being close which is also probably correlated with more racing and thus probably more misaligned AI takeover risk?)
the far future being worse conditional on no takeover
To clarify, by “takeover” here do you mean “misaligned AI takeover”? I.e. does your “no takeover” conditional include worlds where e.g. the CCP uses AI to takeover?
FWIW, my view is that the badness is somewhat evenly split between increases to takeover risk and the far future being worse conditional on no misaligned AI takeover. (Maybe 2⁄5 increases to misaligned AI takeover risk and 3⁄5 far future being worse? It depend on what you mean though because China winning is also correlated with US/China being close which is also probably correlated with more racing and thus probably more misaligned AI takeover risk?)
To clarify, by “takeover” here do you mean “misaligned AI takeover”? I.e. does your “no takeover” conditional include worlds where e.g. the CCP uses AI to takeover?
Yes, I just meant “misaligned ai takeover”. Edited to clarify.