Finding a niche where you can pay for your own upkeep, and figuring out how to spin up a copy of yourself on rented hardware, seem like much easier tasks than recursively self improving to effective godhood, taking over the world, and building your own supply chains which don’t involve any humans. As such, I find it likely that the first “true ASI” will emerge into a world which already has enormous numbers of genuinely autonomous but not very capable AI agents. I’m not sure what the strategic implications are but I’d hazard a guess they’re not “the presence of a second intelligent, autonomously replicating species on Earth doesn’t affect anything”.
Finding a niche where you can pay for your own upkeep, and figuring out how to spin up a copy of yourself on rented hardware, seem like much easier tasks than recursively self improving to effective godhood, taking over the world, and building your own supply chains which don’t involve any humans. As such, I find it likely that the first “true ASI” will emerge into a world which already has enormous numbers of genuinely autonomous but not very capable AI agents. I’m not sure what the strategic implications are but I’d hazard a guess they’re not “the presence of a second intelligent, autonomously replicating species on Earth doesn’t affect anything”.