Sorry this took so long- it was about 5 minutes of formatting that I kept putting off. You can find the spreadsheet here. The bolded numbers are numbers that you can change to play around with. The first page has two areas- the left one is “what are my probabilities on hypotheses A and B given that the house has been shown X times and has received 0 offers”, and the right one is “what would be probabilities on A and B be if I show the house X times, receive 0 offers, and then receive one offer?”
The second sheet is “given that I started with a uniform prior over success rates between 0 and 0.1, how many more times do I expect I need to show the house to receive an offer?” while updating on the information that you haven’t received an offer yet.
I’m really liking this bayesian case study. Could you put the excel spreadsheet you made for it on Google Docs (or something) and post the link here?
Sorry this took so long- it was about 5 minutes of formatting that I kept putting off. You can find the spreadsheet here. The bolded numbers are numbers that you can change to play around with. The first page has two areas- the left one is “what are my probabilities on hypotheses A and B given that the house has been shown X times and has received 0 offers”, and the right one is “what would be probabilities on A and B be if I show the house X times, receive 0 offers, and then receive one offer?”
The second sheet is “given that I started with a uniform prior over success rates between 0 and 0.1, how many more times do I expect I need to show the house to receive an offer?” while updating on the information that you haven’t received an offer yet.