“I would prefer a 1-year pause with say Buck Shlegeris in charge ” I think the best we can realistically do is something like a 1 year pause, and if done well gives a good chance of success. As you say 1 year with ~ASI will get a lot done. Some grand bargain where everyone pauses for one year in return for no more pauses perhaps. Unfortunately it will be extremely hard for some org not to push the “self optimize” button during this time however. Thats why I would rather as few as possible leading AI labs during this time. I would go so far as to say I would rather have 1 year like that than 100 years with current AI capabilities paused and alignment research progressed.
“I would prefer a 1-year pause with say Buck Shlegeris in charge ” I think the best we can realistically do is something like a 1 year pause, and if done well gives a good chance of success. As you say 1 year with ~ASI will get a lot done. Some grand bargain where everyone pauses for one year in return for no more pauses perhaps.
Unfortunately it will be extremely hard for some org not to push the “self optimize” button during this time however. Thats why I would rather as few as possible leading AI labs during this time.
I would go so far as to say I would rather have 1 year like that than 100 years with current AI capabilities paused and alignment research progressed.