Two additional considerations in favour of long-dated call options:
(h/t @Ryan Kidd) This acts as a hedge against the devaluation of your income. Imagine two investment portfolios: one is “AGI-pilled” (i.e. long-dated call options, semiconductors, etc) and the other is “business-as-usual” (i.e. real estate, S&P 500). Suppose further that they have the same distribution over returns, from your perspective. Then you should buy the AGI-pilled portfolio, to hedge against the loss of income due to AGI.
Caveats: Maybe income is higher in AGI worlds than in BAU worlds? This isn’t crazy, but unlikely. See Capital in the 22nd Century (Phil Trammell and Dwarkesh)
The value of the SP 500 is the market’s expectation of the long-run returns. So when you buy a 2 year call option, you aren’t making a bet that AGI will cause revenue to jump 2x, you are only making a bet that the market will expect future discounted revenue to jump by 2x. That is, this is more like timelines on when the market will become AGI-pilled rather than when AGI arrives.
Two additional considerations in favour of long-dated call options:
(h/t @Ryan Kidd) This acts as a hedge against the devaluation of your income. Imagine two investment portfolios: one is “AGI-pilled” (i.e. long-dated call options, semiconductors, etc) and the other is “business-as-usual” (i.e. real estate, S&P 500). Suppose further that they have the same distribution over returns, from your perspective. Then you should buy the AGI-pilled portfolio, to hedge against the loss of income due to AGI.
Caveats: Maybe income is higher in AGI worlds than in BAU worlds? This isn’t crazy, but unlikely. See Capital in the 22nd Century (Phil Trammell and Dwarkesh)
The value of the SP 500 is the market’s expectation of the long-run returns. So when you buy a 2 year call option, you aren’t making a bet that AGI will cause revenue to jump 2x, you are only making a bet that the market will expect future discounted revenue to jump by 2x. That is, this is more like timelines on when the market will become AGI-pilled rather than when AGI arrives.