Sharecroppers in the US had lower labor productivity than 1860 slaves, due to factors like lower economies of scale and unwillingness to organize into gang labor systems. So when did Black Americans’ wages catch up to what they should have been paid in 1860 (based on productivity and average free labor share of income)? GPT5 thinks not until around 1900, at which point the US GDP per capita had about doubled. This ignores the probable decrease in labor hours though.
Even more dramatically, it looks like Haiti’s GDP per capita is still lower today than what it was during the time of slavery in the 1770s. This of course doesn’t mean that the Haitians were better off back then than they are now (Haitian slavery was famously brutal, I think significantly worse even than US slavery). Still, it’s an interesting data point for how efficient slavery-based cash crop production was in some places.
(My main source is this paper on Haitian economic history, plus looking at historical franc to usd conversion rates and inflation calculators.)
Various papers say this, and GPT5 thinks it’s true even accounting for enforcement costs. As one would expect, it’s not true if you also subtract things like health costs to enslaved people themselves.
The book argued that slavery was an economically rational institution and that the economic exploitation of slaves was not as catastrophic as presumed [...]
From what I can tell everyone thinks the conclusions around economic efficiency were true
Many in the historical community were impressed with the authors’ application of cliometrics. In general historians and economists agree with the conclusion that slavery was efficient and economically viable but had more mixed attitudes towards the material well being of slaves.[5]
Sharecroppers in the US had lower labor productivity than 1860 slaves, due to factors like lower economies of scale and unwillingness to organize into gang labor systems. So when did Black Americans’ wages catch up to what they should have been paid in 1860 (based on productivity and average free labor share of income)? GPT5 thinks not until around 1900, at which point the US GDP per capita had about doubled. This ignores the probable decrease in labor hours though.
Even more dramatically, it looks like Haiti’s GDP per capita is still lower today than what it was during the time of slavery in the 1770s. This of course doesn’t mean that the Haitians were better off back then than they are now (Haitian slavery was famously brutal, I think significantly worse even than US slavery). Still, it’s an interesting data point for how efficient slavery-based cash crop production was in some places.
(My main source is this paper on Haitian economic history, plus looking at historical franc to usd conversion rates and inflation calculators.)
Why do you think this, and does this account for enforcement costs (which were very high)?
Various papers say this, and GPT5 thinks it’s true even accounting for enforcement costs. As one would expect, it’s not true if you also subtract things like health costs to enslaved people themselves.
Can you list some particular papers?
The big one is Time on the Cross by Fogel. Wikipedia says
From what I can tell everyone thinks the conclusions around economic efficiency were true