I think IBKR might let Americans trade HKEX index options out to 2030 but it would probably be a hassle. Otherwise there are options on FXI, a Chinese large-cap ETF, which look less liquid than SPX options and only go out 2 years with an IV of 32% or so. I don’t think FXI is worth it because China isn’t in a position to get AGI in the next 2 years if the US doesn’t.
Private American companies seem like the bigger risk from my perspective. As examples, many expect Anthropic/OpenAI to IPO this year, but if AGI is expected to be priced into public markets within ~2 years, that seems like a very small window for the leading AGI companies to not be able to secure private funding. And surely they won’t IPO if they can lock in sufficient funding privately, right? Plus all the other private AI companies.
The main way I see this strategy failing is if American companies specifically fail to capture an AGI takeoff, vs e.g. Chinese companies.
I think IBKR might let Americans trade HKEX index options out to 2030 but it would probably be a hassle. Otherwise there are options on FXI, a Chinese large-cap ETF, which look less liquid than SPX options and only go out 2 years with an IV of 32% or so. I don’t think FXI is worth it because China isn’t in a position to get AGI in the next 2 years if the US doesn’t.
Private American companies seem like the bigger risk from my perspective. As examples, many expect Anthropic/OpenAI to IPO this year, but if AGI is expected to be priced into public markets within ~2 years, that seems like a very small window for the leading AGI companies to not be able to secure private funding. And surely they won’t IPO if they can lock in sufficient funding privately, right? Plus all the other private AI companies.