This seems like it’s relying on a model of how the legislature works where high-quality modeling is one of the key bottlenecks on laws getting passed.
Thomas could also be relying on a model in which high-quality modeling makes it easier to persuade legislators and/or their staffers.
(In general, I don’t think it makes much sense to model persuasion as being constrained by key bottlenecks. My model of persuasion is more like “trying to nudge someone into a new equilibrium/local optimum,” with the direction and magnitude of those nudges determined by the persuasiveness of the argument you’re making; it’s rare to one-shot someone’s beliefs without first delivering 999 cuts.)
On that model, it seems much better to develop models privately, and share them only with policy-makers—and only ones who you’re reasonably sure will interpret them appropriately (i.e., “oh shit RSI is scary” rather than “oh shit this is gonna be amazing for the economy, I’d better oppose regulations”).
On that model, it seems much better to develop models privately, and share them only with policy-makers
In practice I think the hit to impact (in both directions) of private vs public models is massive. Though I also mostly agree with other people that there’s a decently high chance that the effect is net negative.
Thomas could also be relying on a model in which high-quality modeling makes it easier to persuade legislators and/or their staffers.
(In general, I don’t think it makes much sense to model persuasion as being constrained by key bottlenecks. My model of persuasion is more like “trying to nudge someone into a new equilibrium/local optimum,” with the direction and magnitude of those nudges determined by the persuasiveness of the argument you’re making; it’s rare to one-shot someone’s beliefs without first delivering 999 cuts.)
On that model, it seems much better to develop models privately, and share them only with policy-makers—and only ones who you’re reasonably sure will interpret them appropriately (i.e., “oh shit RSI is scary” rather than “oh shit this is gonna be amazing for the economy, I’d better oppose regulations”).
In practice I think the hit to impact (in both directions) of private vs public models is massive. Though I also mostly agree with other people that there’s a decently high chance that the effect is net negative.