I have a correction which would take a while to fully write up. Basically, it seems like non-maneuverable warheads could still evade cheap interceptors using static winglets/grid fins, because their enormous velocity means even a small amount of lift would allow them to pull several gs and move tens-hundreds of meters to the side. The defense has several options against this but I would need to see if any of them work.
I have a correction which would take a while to fully write up. Basically, it seems like non-maneuverable warheads could still evade cheap interceptors using static winglets/grid fins, because their enormous velocity means even a small amount of lift would allow them to pull several gs and move tens-hundreds of meters to the side. The defense has several options against this but I would need to see if any of them work.