A blog post argues that military megawatt class lasers could reach $100 million (inclusive of all fixed costs) by 2045, because laser cost is currently halving every 4 years. In good conditions this would be able to defeat almost arbitrary numbers of any kind of missile whether they can maneuver or not. But there are huge challenges:
Adaptive optics and ultra-precise tracking tech to focus the beam to 20 cm diameter at 200 km, while slewing to track a missile at several degrees per second
Countermeasures like the spinning the RVs to distribute heat
Weather, especially thick clouds which seem completely impractical to burn through (against moving targets, this would basically mean vaporizing an entire plane of water several km^2 by 1 m^2)
A blog post argues that military megawatt class lasers could reach $100 million (inclusive of all fixed costs) by 2045, because laser cost is currently halving every 4 years. In good conditions this would be able to defeat almost arbitrary numbers of any kind of missile whether they can maneuver or not. But there are huge challenges:
Adaptive optics and ultra-precise tracking tech to focus the beam to 20 cm diameter at 200 km, while slewing to track a missile at several degrees per second
Countermeasures like the spinning the RVs to distribute heat
Weather, especially thick clouds which seem completely impractical to burn through (against moving targets, this would basically mean vaporizing an entire plane of water several km^2 by 1 m^2)