I really like this direction! It feels a bit like looking at other data to verify the trend lines which is quite nice.
I was wondering if there’s an easy way for you to look at the amount of doubling per compute/money spent over time for the different domains to see if the differences are even larger? It might be predictive as well since if we can see that tesla has spent a lot on self-driving but haven’t been able to make progress compared to the rest that might give us information that the task is harder than others.
I think Vladimir Nesov wrote somewhere about different investment thresholds being dependent on capabilities return so that would be very interesting to see an analysis of! (What the doubling per compute says about different investment strategies as different phases and it being an important variable for determining investment phase transitions e.g bear or bull market.)
I really like this direction! It feels a bit like looking at other data to verify the trend lines which is quite nice.
I was wondering if there’s an easy way for you to look at the amount of doubling per compute/money spent over time for the different domains to see if the differences are even larger? It might be predictive as well since if we can see that tesla has spent a lot on self-driving but haven’t been able to make progress compared to the rest that might give us information that the task is harder than others.
I think Vladimir Nesov wrote somewhere about different investment thresholds being dependent on capabilities return so that would be very interesting to see an analysis of! (What the doubling per compute says about different investment strategies as different phases and it being an important variable for determining investment phase transitions e.g bear or bull market.)