Meta-assassination markets: is it a terrible idea to start a prediction market “Will any would-be assassin of me be caught and themselves assassinated before end of 2030, AND I survive 2030” and take a big short position? The market terms will say it also resolves no if there is collusion between the assassin and meta-assassin or the same person hired both.
I will expect to lose a small amount of money to incentivize meta-assassins, which will disincentivize assassins. However the largest advantage is that I would personally derive joy from this, as long as it doesn’t increase my risk.
Meta-assassination markets: is it a terrible idea to start a prediction market “Will any would-be assassin of me be caught and themselves assassinated before end of 2030, AND I survive 2030” and take a big short position? The market terms will say it also resolves no if there is collusion between the assassin and meta-assassin or the same person hired both.
I will expect to lose a small amount of money to incentivize meta-assassins, which will disincentivize assassins. However the largest advantage is that I would personally derive joy from this, as long as it doesn’t increase my risk.