The “village idiot to Einstein” argument is about the relative length of the “subhuman—village idiot” and “village idiot—Einstein” transitions. It predicts that the latter should be vastly shorter than the former. Instead we usually see computers progressing fairly smoothly through the range of human abilities. The fact that the overall transition “subhuman—superhuman” sometimes doesn’t take very long is not directly relevant here.
The “village idiot to Einstein” argument is about the relative length of the “subhuman—village idiot” and “village idiot—Einstein” transitions. It predicts that the latter should be vastly shorter than the former. Instead we usually see computers progressing fairly smoothly through the range of human abilities. The fact that the overall transition “subhuman—superhuman” sometimes doesn’t take very long is not directly relevant here.