My forecasts actually were funded by OP! I would guess that the main counterfactual change as a result of this was going with Hypermind over Good Judgement. It might be interesting to look at differences between those populations of forecasters—I would not model “super forecasters” as homogeneous and in retrospect the particular forecasters we got seemed not super good at AI questions, or else just weren’t trying hard enough. But I also worked with some very good, AI-focused forecasters as a sanity check and they were also surprised by progress as determined by pre-registered predictions.
Ah, thanks for clarifying! (I searched OP’s historical AI grants for ones that mentioned your name or UC Berkeley in nearby years and didn’t find anything that looked likely to cover the AI forecasting — I suppose I’ll put less stock in that kind of methodology going forward.)
My forecasts actually were funded by OP! I would guess that the main counterfactual change as a result of this was going with Hypermind over Good Judgement. It might be interesting to look at differences between those populations of forecasters—I would not model “super forecasters” as homogeneous and in retrospect the particular forecasters we got seemed not super good at AI questions, or else just weren’t trying hard enough. But I also worked with some very good, AI-focused forecasters as a sanity check and they were also surprised by progress as determined by pre-registered predictions.
Ah, thanks for clarifying! (I searched OP’s historical AI grants for ones that mentioned your name or UC Berkeley in nearby years and didn’t find anything that looked likely to cover the AI forecasting — I suppose I’ll put less stock in that kind of methodology going forward.)
My guess would be that it’s because they paid Hypermind directly rather than making the grant to me.