I’ve been doing Quantified Intuitions’ Estimation Game every month. I really enjoy it. A big thing I’ve learned from it is the instinct to think in terms of orders of magnitude.
Well, not necessarily orders of magnitude, but something similar. For example, a friend just asked me about building a little web app calculator to provide better handicaps in golf scrambles. In the past I’d get a little overwhelmed thinking about how much time such a project would take and default to saying no. But this time I noticed myself approaching it differently.
Will it take minutes? Eh, probably not. Hours? Possibly, but seems a little optimistic. Days? Yeah, seems about right. Weeks? Eh, possibly, but even with the planning fallacy, I’d be surprised. Months? No, it won’t take that long. Years. No way.
With this approach I can figure out the right ballpark very quickly. It’s helpful.
I’ve been doing Quantified Intuitions’ Estimation Game every month. I really enjoy it. A big thing I’ve learned from it is the instinct to think in terms of orders of magnitude.
Well, not necessarily orders of magnitude, but something similar. For example, a friend just asked me about building a little web app calculator to provide better handicaps in golf scrambles. In the past I’d get a little overwhelmed thinking about how much time such a project would take and default to saying no. But this time I noticed myself approaching it differently.
Will it take minutes? Eh, probably not. Hours? Possibly, but seems a little optimistic. Days? Yeah, seems about right. Weeks? Eh, possibly, but even with the planning fallacy, I’d be surprised. Months? No, it won’t take that long. Years. No way.
With this approach I can figure out the right ballpark very quickly. It’s helpful.