As a data point I was extremely confident I wanted kids, and didn’t especially vibe with most babies/never had changed a diaper before my kid was born, and my confident prediction, so far, was if anything an underestimate. I doubt a week of babysitting would have changed my intent whatsoever, but it would probably have been stressful and not that fun.
Sure, some of those. But also I just expected parenthood to change me a bunch to be better suited to it. Like, it’s a challenge such that rising to it transforms you. With babysitting you’re just skipping to a random bit pretty far into the process, not already having been transformed.
Gotcha. That makes sense that this transformation should be factored in. However, it still feels to me like despite the possibility of transformation, babysitting would still likely be useful.
As an example, today I was babysitting while my girlfriend and her sister went out. The baby was eating lunch and got food everywhere, including her hair. And when I tried to clean it she’d cry and push me away. Before this I knew in principle that this sort of thing happens but I didn’t realize how overwhelming and stressful I personally would find it.
As another example, I’ve been feeling anxious that the baby will get sick or hurt under my watch. On Friday I had her on my lap during a work call. She was holding my mousepad in front of her face as if she was camera shy which was cute. Then there was a point where I spoke for 30 seconds or so. During this time I lost track of what the baby was doing. Turns out she was eating the gel for the hand rest part of the mousepad! There’s been a handful of similar situations where a moment of losing focus lead to her doing something potentially harmful. Before this week I didn’t understand how frequently this sort of thing happens or how anxious it’d make me feel.
So then, unless you have a very high degree of confidence that your transformation would be large enough to kinda offset any of these potential learnings, it seems to me like babysitting would be pretty useful. Not perfect or definitive of course, but useful.
Furthermore, it seems tough to be so confident in this transformation. If you’re a new parent it’s not something you have direct experience with. It’s a unique enough thing where I feel like it’s hard to find a good reference class, in terms of similar things you’ve personally experienced in your life. For looking at the reference class of other parents I’m not aware of good data here and I’d expect there to be a fair amount of individual differences. Affective forecasting in general is often tough. High confidence in general is often tough.
One thing is, babies very gradually get harder in exactly the way you describe! Like, at first by default they breastfeed, and don’t have teeth, which is at the very least highly instinctive to learn. Then they eat a tiiiny bit of solid food, like a bite or two once a day, to train you. So you have gotten way stronger at “baby eating challenges” by the time the baby can e.g. throw food. Likewise they’ll very rarely try to put stuff in their mouths early on, then really gradually more and more, so you hone that instinct too. Even diapers don’t smell bad the first couple of months! Hard to overestimate the effects of the extremely instinct compliant learning curve.
I think you can be quite confident in a parental transformation. Parents routinely fall in love with their babies, either immediately, or over the first few weeks or months. Increased brain plasticity during pregnancy and early parenthood is very common. If you know your genetic parents, you can check with them how their parental transformation went as a baseline.
I also agree with you that prior experiences with children (of all ages) are very informative. Ideally you combine the sources of information to make a better combined prediction.
Thesis: I will fall in love with my baby.
Antithesis: I find crying babies overwhelming. Babies cry a lot.
Synthesis: comforting my crying baby will be doing something overwhelming for someone I love.
That synthesis might or might not sound like a good time, but I think it’s more predictive than either perspective alone. Also, some people don’t want to be transformed, so it’s worth considering in both directions.
As a data point I was extremely confident I wanted kids, and didn’t especially vibe with most babies/never had changed a diaper before my kid was born, and my confident prediction, so far, was if anything an underestimate. I doubt a week of babysitting would have changed my intent whatsoever, but it would probably have been stressful and not that fun.
Why do you say that? Some hypotheses:
Having a kid is a pretty terminal goal of yours and doesn’t depend much on how enjoyable or stressful it is.
You didn’t think babysitting someone else’s kid would be representative of what it’d be like taking care of your own kid.
Your prior was really strong.
Sure, some of those. But also I just expected parenthood to change me a bunch to be better suited to it. Like, it’s a challenge such that rising to it transforms you. With babysitting you’re just skipping to a random bit pretty far into the process, not already having been transformed.
Gotcha. That makes sense that this transformation should be factored in. However, it still feels to me like despite the possibility of transformation, babysitting would still likely be useful.
As an example, today I was babysitting while my girlfriend and her sister went out. The baby was eating lunch and got food everywhere, including her hair. And when I tried to clean it she’d cry and push me away. Before this I knew in principle that this sort of thing happens but I didn’t realize how overwhelming and stressful I personally would find it.
As another example, I’ve been feeling anxious that the baby will get sick or hurt under my watch. On Friday I had her on my lap during a work call. She was holding my mousepad in front of her face as if she was camera shy which was cute. Then there was a point where I spoke for 30 seconds or so. During this time I lost track of what the baby was doing. Turns out she was eating the gel for the hand rest part of the mousepad! There’s been a handful of similar situations where a moment of losing focus lead to her doing something potentially harmful. Before this week I didn’t understand how frequently this sort of thing happens or how anxious it’d make me feel.
So then, unless you have a very high degree of confidence that your transformation would be large enough to kinda offset any of these potential learnings, it seems to me like babysitting would be pretty useful. Not perfect or definitive of course, but useful.
Furthermore, it seems tough to be so confident in this transformation. If you’re a new parent it’s not something you have direct experience with. It’s a unique enough thing where I feel like it’s hard to find a good reference class, in terms of similar things you’ve personally experienced in your life. For looking at the reference class of other parents I’m not aware of good data here and I’d expect there to be a fair amount of individual differences. Affective forecasting in general is often tough. High confidence in general is often tough.
One thing is, babies very gradually get harder in exactly the way you describe! Like, at first by default they breastfeed, and don’t have teeth, which is at the very least highly instinctive to learn. Then they eat a tiiiny bit of solid food, like a bite or two once a day, to train you. So you have gotten way stronger at “baby eating challenges” by the time the baby can e.g. throw food. Likewise they’ll very rarely try to put stuff in their mouths early on, then really gradually more and more, so you hone that instinct too. Even diapers don’t smell bad the first couple of months! Hard to overestimate the effects of the extremely instinct compliant learning curve.
I think you can be quite confident in a parental transformation. Parents routinely fall in love with their babies, either immediately, or over the first few weeks or months. Increased brain plasticity during pregnancy and early parenthood is very common. If you know your genetic parents, you can check with them how their parental transformation went as a baseline.
I also agree with you that prior experiences with children (of all ages) are very informative. Ideally you combine the sources of information to make a better combined prediction.
Thesis: I will fall in love with my baby.
Antithesis: I find crying babies overwhelming. Babies cry a lot.
Synthesis: comforting my crying baby will be doing something overwhelming for someone I love.
That synthesis might or might not sound like a good time, but I think it’s more predictive than either perspective alone. Also, some people don’t want to be transformed, so it’s worth considering in both directions.