That is the wrong question to ask. By their nature the result of experiments is unknown. The bar is whether or not in expectation and on the margin do they provide positive externalities, and the answer is clearly yes.
From my reading and understanding of the issue, the expected value of a proposed new policy interventions is almost certainly at least slightly negative, but the aggregate value of trying them is positive because you can drop the bad ones. (cf. evolution, where the expected value of mutations is massively negative, but it still works because of selection.)
Does experimenting always provide a positive externality 100% of the time? Or does it sometimes generate negative externalities too?
That is the wrong question to ask. By their nature the result of experiments is unknown. The bar is whether or not in expectation and on the margin do they provide positive externalities, and the answer is clearly yes.
Can you link the actual argument/source backing this claim?
It doesn’t seem obvious at all why that must be the case on a national or global scale.
I think it can generate negative externalities at times. However, I think that in terms of expected value it’s usually positive.
From my reading and understanding of the issue, the expected value of a proposed new policy interventions is almost certainly at least slightly negative, but the aggregate value of trying them is positive because you can drop the bad ones. (cf. evolution, where the expected value of mutations is massively negative, but it still works because of selection.)