It’s hard to predict what will be useful >5 years from now.
moreover, it is extremely hard to predict what is possible to achieve within the time horizon of 10 years, unless it’s something that has been done before. In your example, a WBE megaproject in 10 years has probably noise-level odds of success, unless your inside view is fantastically good.
I think Holden Karnofsky gives excellent advice on this—have you read the hilights or listened to this episode of the 80K podcast?
moreover, it is extremely hard to predict what is possible to achieve within the time horizon of 10 years, unless it’s something that has been done before. In your example, a WBE megaproject in 10 years has probably noise-level odds of success, unless your inside view is fantastically good.