“Before the pills” is not a valid reference point, because “not taking pills at all” is not an option in original dilemma. Default state here is “everybody uses bad decision theory and bunch of people dies”.
Default state here is “everybody uses bad decision theory and bunch of people dies”.
Whichever decision you think is the bad one, if everyone does it then everyone lives.
There are plenty of bad decisions, like “randomize” or “do whatever feel like it”.
“Before the pills” is not a valid reference point, because “not taking pills at all” is not an option in original dilemma. Default state here is “everybody uses bad decision theory and bunch of people dies”.
Whichever decision you think is the bad one, if everyone does it then everyone lives.
There are plenty of bad decisions, like “randomize” or “do whatever feel like it”.