I know this is a rationality site, not a current affairs site, but when something tweaks my interest I like to know what “Less Wrong” thinks...waiting for a spontaneous post could take forever and finding a ‘rationality-spin’ would be disingenuous so I’ll just ask:
What is possible and what is likely?
What factors are important?
I will add any concrete and precise predictions anyone has to PredictionBook for those that don’t have their own account. Just reply to this comment with a proposition.
Having said that, I downvoted because I don’t like seeing these kinds of posts on Less Wrong (not that the subject isn’t interesting). Mind-killing content like this tends to attract comments full of data-less speculative bullshit.
Sure. I just realized this morning (because it is a new day and I have access to different information in my brain) that what I probably intended to do was post this as an open thread, but I forgot about the distinction between these two places for posting stuff-that’s-not-appropriate-for-a-main-article.
I will add any concrete and precise predictions anyone has to PredictionBook for those that don’t have their own account. Just reply to this comment with a proposition.
Having said that, I downvoted because I don’t like seeing these kinds of posts on Less Wrong (not that the subject isn’t interesting). Mind-killing content like this tends to attract comments full of data-less speculative bullshit.
Sure. I just realized this morning (because it is a new day and I have access to different information in my brain) that what I probably intended to do was post this as an open thread, but I forgot about the distinction between these two places for posting stuff-that’s-not-appropriate-for-a-main-article.
Fair enough. I probably wouldn’t have downvoted this if it was in an open thread.
I’ve got an account and added a prediction.