Signal is a victim of Regressional goodheart if it’s a good indicator of thing you care about but stops working the moment you start optimizing for it. for example empty email inbox is a decent signal for me having taken care of things I need to do but if I do the obvious optimization and set up a filter to delete all incoming email...
Signal is a victim of Extreme Goodheart if optimizing for it works well. Until you get to values that are very high when it suddenly sops working. For example if I increased fraction of time I spend exercising I expect I would keep getting healthier for a while. But I expect that if was exercising so much I’d need to take stimulants to be able to move time from sleep to exercise I’d be hurting myself.
So I think those are mutually exclusive (you can’t have optimizing signal both fail immediately and keep working for a while).
I understood Regressional vs Extremal like that:
Signal is a victim of Regressional goodheart if it’s a good indicator of thing you care about but stops working the moment you start optimizing for it. for example empty email inbox is a decent signal for me having taken care of things I need to do but if I do the obvious optimization and set up a filter to delete all incoming email...
Signal is a victim of Extreme Goodheart if optimizing for it works well. Until you get to values that are very high when it suddenly sops working. For example if I increased fraction of time I spend exercising I expect I would keep getting healthier for a while. But I expect that if was exercising so much I’d need to take stimulants to be able to move time from sleep to exercise I’d be hurting myself.
So I think those are mutually exclusive (you can’t have optimizing signal both fail immediately and keep working for a while).