Waymo’s website says they are serving riders in 11 US cities (all of which are among the 50 largest).
Waymo feels very real in SF: it’s a product that’s easy to access, people use it because they like it rather than for novelty, it’s able to serve most routes within the city, and it has nearly as much market share as Uber (here’s some slightly stale data, I think by now its share is more like 25%). I don’t have direct visibility into the other 10 cities, but I think at least a few of them still have a waitlist. My current best guess is that we’ll hit my 2.5 year prediction a bit before 3 years (and probably hit my 3.5 year prediction a bit early).
Overall I think that self-driving deployment has been faster than most technical people expected in 2016. It was probably somewhere around my 20th percentile.
It has been almost 3 years! I’m not living in the US, but curious how your prediction went.
Waymo’s website says they are serving riders in 11 US cities (all of which are among the 50 largest).
Waymo feels very real in SF: it’s a product that’s easy to access, people use it because they like it rather than for novelty, it’s able to serve most routes within the city, and it has nearly as much market share as Uber (here’s some slightly stale data, I think by now its share is more like 25%). I don’t have direct visibility into the other 10 cities, but I think at least a few of them still have a waitlist. My current best guess is that we’ll hit my 2.5 year prediction a bit before 3 years (and probably hit my 3.5 year prediction a bit early).
Overall I think that self-driving deployment has been faster than most technical people expected in 2016. It was probably somewhere around my 20th percentile.