If we end up in the extremely plausible world where very little of the many kinds of work that claim to be “necessary” are actually used—and then we survive anyway—perhaps I’ll go back and collect statements like this to remind myself how even smart people pre-AGI were frequently confidently wrong.
(I don’t understand why people say stuff like this with hardly any evidence / reasoning / argumentation—for a claim about how no other possibility could exist! It is hard to be confident in a negative! Sorry about picking on this post in particular.)
(Fwiw this seems like a generally promising direction and I’m glad you’re looking into it. I just think the actual claims that Team Shard makes are often way too strong.)
I (a member of Team Shard) think that there are plausible worlds where we don’t address any of the “core difficulties” of alignment, but survive anyways, just because making an AI aligned enough that it doesn’t literally want to kill everyone turns out to be a very low bar.
If we end up in the extremely plausible world where very little of the many kinds of work that claim to be “necessary” are actually used—and then we survive anyway—perhaps I’ll go back and collect statements like this to remind myself how even smart people pre-AGI were frequently confidently wrong.
(I don’t understand why people say stuff like this with hardly any evidence / reasoning / argumentation—for a claim about how no other possibility could exist! It is hard to be confident in a negative! Sorry about picking on this post in particular.)
(Fwiw this seems like a generally promising direction and I’m glad you’re looking into it. I just think the actual claims that Team Shard makes are often way too strong.)
I (a member of Team Shard) think that there are plausible worlds where we don’t address any of the “core difficulties” of alignment, but survive anyways, just because making an AI aligned enough that it doesn’t literally want to kill everyone turns out to be a very low bar.
Great, glad to know it isn’t universal.
Same, and I think that this kind of “just don’t do anything actively stupid” world is actually reasonably likely (10%+).