However, I also think that the probability is at least 20%, and that is large enough that I think it is unreasonable not to care (assuming that preservation of humanity is one of your principle terminal values, which it may or may not be).
I agree.
I’m not sure what the majority view is on less wrong, but none of the people I have met in real life advocate making decisions based on (very) small probabilities of (very) large utility fluctuations.
No, I think some people here use the +20% estimate on risks from AI and act according to some implications of logical implications. See here, which is the post the comment I linked to talked about. I have chosen that post because it resembled ideas put forth in another post on lesswrong that has been banned because of the perceived risks and because people got nightmares due to it.
I agree.
No, I think some people here use the +20% estimate on risks from AI and act according to some implications of logical implications. See here, which is the post the comment I linked to talked about. I have chosen that post because it resembled ideas put forth in another post on lesswrong that has been banned because of the perceived risks and because people got nightmares due to it.