As such you should consider whether you’re belief that it’s rational to donate to SIAI is affected by the same bias.
You’re right, you should. Although there are some serious holes in the claim that SIAI looks like a cult using the outside view, that’s not totally relevant.
My point is that you should correct for this kind of bias using probabilities, rather than saying “well, I don’t find the conclusions aesthetically pleasing, so since I’m biased I can just throw them out.” And if you correct for the bias, and model uncertainty, and include all the evidence, and you still get the aesthetically unpleasing answer, well, tough.
You’re right, you should. Although there are some serious holes in the claim that SIAI looks like a cult using the outside view, that’s not totally relevant.
My point is that you should correct for this kind of bias using probabilities, rather than saying “well, I don’t find the conclusions aesthetically pleasing, so since I’m biased I can just throw them out.” And if you correct for the bias, and model uncertainty, and include all the evidence, and you still get the aesthetically unpleasing answer, well, tough.